Oil price edges lower on anticipated United States production rise

Crude oil is extracted from the Monterey Shale formation near Bakersfield California

"I think this group of committed and responsible producers came together. and I think they will continue to do what it takes to take us to the next level", he said at an global oil conference. Global energy demand is 30 per cent higher by 2040 - but still half as much as it would have been without efficiency improvements. This is expected to cut 2.5 million bpd, or about 2 percent, off global oil demand by that time.Still, the IEA's "New Policies Scenario", based on existing legislation and announced policy intentions, expects oil prices to rise towards $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s.

"The abundance of shale gas in the United States also affects the pace of shale gas development in Canada".

Traders said they were cautious about betting on further price rises.

While the US exported 100 billion cubic metres of Canadian gas in 2005, that figure fell by over a fifth in 2016. Scientists just this week said that emissions of the heat-trapping gas rose this year after three years of not growing.

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With the US eating into Canada's prospective market share, the IEA believes Canada's liquefied natural gas export will likely not come to fruition until the 2030s - a decade longer than expected - even as LNG will usher in a "new global gas order".

Climate activists said the IEA report is too negative, but added that it highlights the need for more action to combat climate change.

Between 2017 and 2040 the IEA estimates that more solar power capacity will be added globally each year than any other source of energy, with an annual average increase of almost 70 gigawatts. Solar photovoltaic would lead capacity additions, pushed by deployment in China and India, it adds.

The IEA noted that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was down by 830,000 bpd year-on-year in October, although demand for the group's crude is expected to fall to 32.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year and to 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018.

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Along with the expected demand for oil, the IEA said natural gas use is projected to increase by 45 per cent to 2040.

While the IEA's base-case scenario projects oil prices reaching US$83 per barrel by 2025 and as high as US$111 by 2040, a low oil-price scenario could see prices stuck in the US$50 to US$70s if electric passenger cars take off, USA tight oil production continues to rise and upstream costs decline.

After hitting a 10-year low of less than $30 in January, down from a peak of more than $100 in mid-2014, oil prices have recently been hovering around the $55 mark.

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